Tuesday, September 12, 2006

 

AFC East: Week 1 Under Review

Before we dive into the week that was the AFC East, let's take a look at my boneheaded picks:

Dolphins (+4) over Steelers

Can you really blame me for refusing to pick in favor of Charlie Batch? Of course, I didn't at all expect Culpepper to completely melt down over the course of two passes, which completely skewed the game. The second wan was extra killer, because it put the Steelers beyond the spread. Stupid me for thinking Culpepper's 2005 was an aberration. Note to self: the Dolphins probably aren't nearly as good as the hype. Not picking them again until they win.

Titans (-3) over Jets

As it turns out, Chad Pennington is the exact same quarterback he was prior to the shoulder surgery. Armed with his favorite target (a popular story among New York area newspapers, even though it's been done to death), Pennington put up a week expected by none. The only problem with the Jets win is that the expectations are going to be a bit loftier, meaning disappointment could be looming.

Patriots (-8.5) over Bills

D'oh! Right winner, but not even close on the spread. So much for the 13 point spread I mentioned in the preview. Not having seen the game, I attribute it more to bad luck on the Patriot's part than the Bills being good in any way. Then again, there's always the possibility that the Pats luck has run out. I'm still not betting against them, though.

So that's a whopping 0-3 in Week 1. Hey, if I'm this bad next week, you can always come to me as a reliable source for who not to bet on (ahhhh! Preposition at the end of a sentence!)

As for the week in fantasy:

QBs

1.Chad Pennington (16): 319 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 fumble lost
Remember back in 2002 and 2003 when Chad was actually a good quarterback and had a viable target in Lav Coles? It seems those days are back, or at least they were for Week 1. The main difference, though, is the lack of a running back, which will prove detrimental in the coming weeks. Start him if you will next week, but beware the aberration factor.

2.Tom Brady (11): 163 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble lost
Disappointing for Brady despite the two TDs. The pick and the fumble were even more hurtful because of his low yardage. I totally expect better numbers next week agains the Jets.

3.J.P. Losman (3): 164 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 fumbles lost
Yep, pretty shitty, just as expected. At least he didn't fall into the negative category ::cough:: Jake Plummer. Then again, if you received Losman's three points this week, you're likely an idiot and will deserve the -12 he'll put up in one of the coming weeks. The Buffalo Bills: fucking up the draft and ruining their long term prospects since I can remember.

4.Daunte Culpepper (1): 262 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0 fumbles lost
Yeah, I'm being harsh on Daunte, but he fuckin' deserves it. He had the lead, and in the span of a few football minutes, he squandered it all. You can say that he'll recover and that his performance hinged on the Pittsburgh D, but that's a sheer cop-out. Fantasy owners across the nation are bracing themselves for Year Two of the Culpepper regression. Get him out, NOW. Because when you score less points than J.P. Losman, you've truly hit rock bottom. I'd say his trade value right now hovers somewhere around newly signed Koren Robinson's.

RBs

1.Ronnie Brown (14): 30 yards rushing, 32 receiving, 2 TDs
In a game where Willie Parker ran for 119 yards, Ronnie Brown still outscored him, proving that Willie is not a good fantasy player (which is probably a surprising statement coming from me). Pretty shitty average per carry, but the two TDs are a reprieve for fantasy owners. If Culpepper continues his shitty passing, though, Ronnie could be in a bit of trouble, as he won't have any goalline situations in which to score from three yards out.

2.Kevin Faulk (8): 21 yards rushing, 17 receiving 1 TD
Yep, he outscored Dillon and Maroney because of the TD. Thankfully, neither of the aforementioned backs were drafted too too early, so the hit isn't that bad. I still wouldn't nab Faulk on the waiver wire, however, unless I had a gaping hole at running back. Actually, I thought I would have one, but lo and behold:

3.Kevan Barlow (8): 35 yards rushing, 1 TD
So he looked terrrrrrible out there, rushing for just a pathetic average per carry. He can't break tackles, and he doesn't have a quick step to the outside. However, he's infinitely better than Derrick Blaylock, and should be getting more touches in the coming weeks. Probably the best 13th round pick I've made in a while.

4.Willis McGahee (5): 70 yards rushing, 24 receiving, 0 TD
The killer of my fantasy team here is killing someone else this year, as McGahee absolutely blows. That's what you get when your team's quarterback has a bigger pussy than Holley Mangold (do those jokes ever get old? Did I overdo it there?). Fuck you, Willis. Have fun racking up your 8 points a week average.

WRs

1.Lav Coles, Jericho Cottchery (9): 153 yards / 65 yards, 0 TD/ 1TD
Yeah, I think it was his TD that got called back on a D'Brickashaw holding call. And then Nuge flubbed the field goal, and the Jets were left with naught. It appears, however, that Coles and Pennington are on the same page, making Coles a potential weapon. I'm still not completely sold, but I'm liking what I see. I like Cottchery a helluva lot more, however.

2.Troy Brown (7): 18 yards, 1 TD
Could the departure of Deion Branch be the downfall of New England? It appears at least possible, as Tom Brady now has, oh, no reliable receivers beyond Brown, who is getting up there in age. He's on the DTAFFL waiver wire, and I for one haven't put in a claim.

3.Marty Booker (3): 64 yards receiving, 0 TD
What happened to Chris Chambers?

4.Josh Reed (2): 40 yards receiving, 0 TD
What happened to Lee Evans?

This is long...already over a thousand words. I think you're all fine with a major three position overview. If you want me to do tight ends, kickers, and defense, you'll just have to wait. My lunch break is almost over.

Comments:
I gave up on Daunte after seeing his act last year. Without Randy Moss to chuck it to, he's just an average QB. His passes looked pretty weak to me.

Pennington was the real surprise in this conference. He threw some accurate deep balls and looked like he could have a solid year. I really thought the Titans would win this game. I also bet on them and learned the hard way that you NEVER BET ON A TEAM IF THE QB IS KERRY COLLINS. He is probably the worst "decision making" QB I've ever seen.

I think the Pats will be ok, although not having Branch will hurt their offense a bit. JP Losman is the pits. The Bills defense kept them in the game, but until they get another QB they wont win more than 6 games. As bad as Favre is, if he were on this team they could be .500.
 
So I guess I'm benching Duante for Chad next week.

My security word was "lofto" and that's funny.
 
I have a feeling that the Pats are going to do to gamblers what the Broncos do to fantasy running back owners - they'll win a lot of games straight up but be brutal against the spread.

The delight I'll get from this is watching Simmons struggle with whether or not he should consistently bet against his team, during the season where his wife beats him in picking games. Freakin' sweet.
 
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